برآورد امید زندگی در مردان و زنان سالمند تهرانی و عوامل خطر مرتبط با آن، بر اساس مطالعه قند و لیپید تهران (89-1377)

Background & Objectives: Although the population of elderly is increasing in Iran, few studies carried out on this group. The aim of this study was to identify life expectancy and contributory risk factors for the Tehranian elderly of ages above 60 years. Methods: Individuals above 60 years old whom were recruited in the primary phase of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) during 1998-2001 were followed up for 12 years and their vital status were registered (1998-2011). Age and sex mortality rates for age groups (60-69, 70-79, 80+) were calculated and by using Cox proportional hazard model the mean of survival time and hazard rates with respect to risk factors were estimated. Results: Life expectancy for females and males after crossing 60 years of age reaches to 81 and 80 years, respectively without any statistically significant differences between these two groups. Cox model showed that diabetes, BMI>33Kg/m2 and non ischmecic heart disease reduced survival time in women significantly. While diabetes, smoking, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, history of MI, stroke or sudden death of father, brother or son, lack of physical activity and antihypertensive medications are among the hazardous risk factors for men. Conclusion: Among the variables studied, only three (ABC) of them were found as risk factors of women's life, while for men seven risk factors were identified. It seems that more studies are needed to determine the risk factors for women.